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Federal Reopening & Data Timing ?3

08:03 17-Nov-25

The BLS has scheduled the September employment situation reports to be released on Thursday morning.  This will be a full report, unlike the still unscheduled one for October, as discussed below.  Obviously, the September data is very dated now, but the juxtaposition following Nvidia earnings may still prove interesting.

FedWatch now has the chances of has the chances of the committee holding rates steady up to 50% after jawboning from multiple members.  That combined with military build up in Venezuela has the market in a tailspin.  While a pause does seem warranted, CrowdWisers reiterates the forecast that employment data will force the Fed's hand making that factor of the current downturn a short term effect.  The fact that we'll only get the establishment survey in the October jobs report, whenever it becomes available, and no unemployment rate, only underscores this point.

We should know soon enough whether the Ford is engaged in a media or military exercise as it won't do to simply leave the carrier sitting in the Caribbean for long.  Three weeks ago this service warned not to be surprised to see Trump embracing war as a further distraction from domestic troubles, and administration rhetoric indicates we shouldn't underestimate the latter possibility; while the White House has been weighted toward rhetoric over action in some ways, its willingness to strike Iran and deploy masked men to American cities also indicates willingness to deploy force against Maduro.  In that case, it would be a long shot for Nvidia to single-handedly turn the market around with its earnings on Wednesday and we could already be in the initial stages of the sustained downturn that the parent CrowdWisers service has long anticipated.

On 11/12/25 11:24 AM, CrowdWisers Administration wrote:

The House is scheduled to convene at noon, and after debate, expected to pass the Senate's CR.  This should lead to the resumption of government data on varying time lines.  The most important of these is the employment reports.  We should get the September report by next week, but the October report would likely be delayed until after Thanksgiving.  ADP weekly data released yesterday indicated that the private sector took a sharp downturn in the end second half of October, in sharp contrast to the front-loaded monthly report.  Recent research from Pew indicates a strong correlation between ADP and the BLS for the private sector.  The real question is whether the Fed will brush aside such data due to the shutdown.  Otherwise, Miran just might get his half point cut on December 10th, especially since the November report may also be delayed until after that, and would probably be considered unreliable even if not.  Furthermore, inflation data (CPI & PPI) should take longer to catch up.

December & January stock trading are typically tricky even without these factors, due to other practices such as tax loss harvesting and fund window dressing.  The latter may be particularly relevant for the AI trade, as the canary stocks referenced by this service have shown increased volatility after big upward jumps, but the underlying race in investment shows no sign of abating just yet.  Index investors should prepare for greater than seasonal volatility, and the parent CrowWisers service discusses individual stock prospects over varying time frames in the face of it.

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