--- the subscriber area has no ads and those above are not selected or endorsed by this site ---

Oracle Information Plus Alternate Jobs Data ?3

09:09 10-Oct-25

The market has become fixated on Gold above $4K, but I see little evidence of eroding dollar dominance.  Rather, I see the rise as an inflationary indicator, with annual government interest payments crossing the trillion dollar mark according the CBO report released this week, even though the deficit edged down by less than half a percent.  Accordingly, the chances of a quarter point Fed cut at the end of the month have begun to edge down below 95%.  As discussed below, Fed prognostication is likely to continue taking a backseat to AI in the indexes for now, but I reiterate that there are no good options for the committee.

In the wake of the Information article on Oracle's Nvidia rental margins, some subscribers to the main service have asked if we really have months left in the AI bull market.  I'm going to answer by linking to two different summaries, one more technical and negative, and the other more positive and financial in nature.  Then I note that neither article directly references AMD shares, which appear utterly unfazed by the report so far.  One explanation for that is that traders who bid a stock up to a 125+ P/E are may not be so quick to grasp details like near term profit margins, let alone the all-important depreciation schedules linked below.  So, there could still be delayed reaction, but I do see AMD as the canary in the coal mine for the broader market at this juncture.  I'll also reiterate the point that governments want AI infrastructure for surveillance and they don't like having to rely on single points of production.

Furthermore, for those who didn't read the alternate jobs data link below, while all alternative sources show further weakening of the labor market, only the ADP report, documented here, was overtly recessionary so far.  There's a bit of a catch 22 here in that, even if AI were to succeed it would lead to even higher energy prices and more job pain, but far more likely, we're looking at massive market capital destruction.

So yes, the runway on the AI bubble could have little more than a month left, especially with Nvidia earnings due in mid-November, and prudent investors don't try to time markets.  However, so far, this looks like another negative data point, rather than the broad market panic that some are watching out for.

On 10/7/25 7:12 PM, Esekla wrote:

HIMX shares temporarily regaining the $9 handle yesterday in sympathy with AMD's massive OpenAI shows that the company is still catching the AI bid, but sentiment around that continues to look shaky.  My guess that the remaining runway is measured in months, rather than multiple years is further supported by depreciation schedules on data centers.  It's not comforting to be in this situation at a time when alternate sources of jobs data show continued weakening of the labor market.

Topics:

• none