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ADP, elections and markets +3

08:54 05-Nov-25


ADP has reported +42K jobs for October, which almost doubles expectations that ranged from +22K to +26K.  Large corporations led these gains while smaller ones dropped employment.  American equity futures have improved on the data and are almost back to neutral, validating perspective provided in the main CrowdWisers service yesterday morning:

On 11/4/25 11:01 AM, Esekla wrote:
I see this as typical of the market volatility I'd looked for below in conjunction with VIRT, and indeed that stock is one of the few that is up this morning.  It may have been kicked off by news of Burry taking short positions in NVDA and PLTR, but my only comment on that would be that I respect him more as an analyst than a practicing investor; while I agree with him in principle, I am NOT seeing current trading that looks anything like a sustained market capitulation just yet, and I still think trying to time the market is a bad idea in any case.
Furthermore, although all three elections, in NY City, New Jersey and Virginia, resulted in Democratic wins.  However, I don't think investors should go overboard interpreting this as an erosion of Trump's political base, as incumbents almost always suffer in midterm elections.  California also approved its referendum for redistricting to combat similar measures in Texas and elsewhere.