July ADP report and more ?3

09:18 05-Aug-26


The ADP report for July headlined at +44K jobs, well below estimates for +75K.  YoY pay gains remained steady at +4.4% but gains for job changers rose by 7%, which is a 0.4% sequential improvement.  Otherwise, this looks very much like a slower version of the June report, which was also revised down, as the end of the World Cup impacted hospitality.  The market ignored that, and I expect it will ignore this as well as it currently expects the Fed to do so...

On 8/4/26 10:46 AM, while assessing the inflationary pain of domestic manufacturing Esekla wrote:
That matters because, although June PCE numbers were of no concern as predicted, and Warsh's comments appeared to indicate that I was correct to ignore the report in real time, his second press conference was unusually contentious.  Since then, both the media and significant pundits have refused let the matter go, which is quite appropriately affecting rates and market sentiment.  We'll see what labor data we get from ADP and the BLS for the rest of this week.