--- the subscriber area has no ads and those above are not selected or endorsed by this site ---

Another Fed Hold ?3

17:18 29-Apr-26

To bracket a huge macro event day with some commentary from our parent CrowdWisers service:

There's plenty of market trivia to document, but the clear theme this morning is of traders taking money out of the market before a massive data dump tomorrow; Alphabet will be joined by Microsoft, Amazon and Meta in following up what could be Powell's last press conference.  The cautious tone may be spurred by reports that OpenAI has been missing its own revenue targets, but the only reason I see for general risk aversion is pricing still above fair value, since I've repeatedly referenced OpenAI losing ground to Gemini and Claude.

Though the market is continuing to project winners and losers, Google showing itself as best positioned should come as no surprise to readers at this point.  My broader read is that there is nothing dire enough here to upset indexes.

The Fed press conference has just concluded and some of Powell's further comments merit follow up.  He stated that Fed independence is at risk, and mentioned widespread concerns over continued attacks.  He also characterized the executive branch removing Fed bank presidents for political reasons as "the beginning of the end" should it be successful, but then shifted the focus back to the reasons for political independence, which is economic stability.

On the that front, he finally acknowledged that the consensus is moving from easing toward completely neutral.  He also recognized the historical shift from demand management to supply shocks over the past six years which this service views as far more important than the current focus on politics and foreign affairs.  To that end, the exiting Chair noted that the America is less exposed to imports than other advanced economies.  This service has long acknowledged that point, and cited it as a reason that American economic data will be the last to suffer.  Despite criticism of some mistakes and the Fed in general, this service commends Powell for his service.

On 4/29/26 3:04 PM, CrowdWisers Administration wrote:

The press conference is ongoing, and Powell opened with a statement on the importance of the press.  Although this service sees no issue that could possibly be of more importance, Powell also confirmed that this will be his "last press conference as Chair" but stated that he will not leave the committee when Warsh assumes the role, though he does intend to keep a low profile.  This is largely due to the continued threat of legal attacks against the institution, rather than public criticism, and most of the press conference focused on that.

Most of the economic discussion was unsurprising, and though Powell described the current rate as at the "high end of neutral", he also was firm in stating the Fed is prepared to adjust in either direction.  This service will follow up if appropriate.

On 4/29/26 2:11 PM, CrowdWisers Administration wrote:

The FOMC has chosen to leave its target rate unchanged, as expected.  The only remarkable change to the language is the final sentence, which notes four votes against an easing bias in the statement.  We'll see what the press conference brings, but I suspect this May pave the way for Powell to gracefully leave the committee.

Topics:

• none