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ADP February Jobs Report ?3

08:51 04-Mar-26


The ADP jobs report for February headlined at +63K and a steady +4.5% annual pay figure.  The weekly data from ADP had been strengthening over the past month, but this is still well above forecasts below 50K.  However, the revision cut the already weak January headline in half, and most of the gains were in healthcare and education for small businesses.  This service sees temporary stabilization in a frozen labor market that is still at the beginning of a long term trend where companies are attempting to use increasingly focused AI to juice profitability by reducing low-skill jobs that don't currently involve hands on physical work.  However, over the medium to long term, the spread through manufacturing and then other industries should accelerate as automation increases, and this is likely to be seen in retrospect as the one of the early plateaus in a long series of labor market step downs for the American labor market.

Next week's data would normally be dominated by CPI & PCE on Wednesday & Friday mornings, but unless there is some credible sign of a speedy resolution to the Middle East war, markets are likely to look past benign figures.  Otherwise, energy led inflation will be a concern.