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January CPI and Taiwan Trade Deal ?3

09:09 13-Feb-26


Headline CPI for January rose 0.2% according to the BLS, which is in line with or a tenth less than various forecasts.  The Core figure rose 0.3% as expected.  The former number was helped by the big drop in oil prices, but Shelter also moderated to +0.2%.  American equity futures haven't reacted much, with FedWatch already back down to a 6% chance for a cut after the jobs report, but this will add to the higher for longer rate narrative.

By contrast to oil, natural gas has traded erratically, but still shows every sign of becoming the primary economic hydrocarbon, as long foreseen by our parent CrowdWisers service.  The trade deal between America and Taiwan announced this morning also commits the latter to purchase $44b of LNG over the next 4 years while lowering tariffs to the 15% charged to many other Asian nations.