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ADP November data -2

09:46 03-Dec-25

American equity futures did turn negative following the ADP report, which is a reaction that would have been unlikely before the federal shutdown.  It may be too much to hope that the entire economy will continue shifting away from federal influence, but faith in government data under the current administration does seem to be ebbing.

Employment data from ADP this morning indicates -32K jobs for November, which was well below expectations for that leading sign to be positive.  The number would be much worse but for the health care sector, and losses are coming completely from smaller employers, whereas those with 50 or more employees are adding staff on average.  However, salary growth continues to slow.  Despite their size, smaller businesses provide about half of American jobs, but this link shows how they are generally poorly equipped to fight back against the impacts of federal policy.

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