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Milei Victory Details +3

07:42 27-Oct-25


Milei's LLA party scored a convincing victory yesterday, with almost 41% of the vote, giving it a 9% lead over its main opposition, the Peronists.  It even won Buenos Aires, where it suffered a complete route last month.  The LLA won more than half the seats contested in both the upper (13 of 24) and lower (64 of 127) houses, bringing it to 20 of 72 and about 101 of 257, respectively.  If there is a niggle, it's that voter turnout was only 68%, the lowest in over 40 years, in a country with mandatory voting.  Historically, that figure has ranged from the high seventies to low eighties.

This result is certainly enough to quiet market concerns for the time being both in terms of peso valuation and American influence.  However, for at least the medium term, debt will remain a major problem as the country has over $18b coming due in 2026 with currently weak foreign reserves, and buying dollars would typically weaken the peso.  Milei has thus far refused to allow that to float freely, and most still see it as overvalued.

Nonetheless, this is a welcome surprise to this service, many Argentinians and the western world, showing that while voters there may have complaints about austerity, they have no desire to return prior policy.  It gives the government a bridge to actually get Vaca Muerta upgrades running, which should help with longer term debt.  That has Brent and WTI futures trading back down around $65.50 and $61 so far.  American midterms are just over a year off, and with any country, it is always the quality structural reform and policy that will matter long term.