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ADP Begins Weekly Labor Estimates ?2

12:13 29-Oct-25

The Senate has passed a symbolic bill to revoke Trump's tariffs on Brazil.  This has no chance of actually changing anything in the short term, but I still see it as being meaningful in the face of the changing political climate.  While Korea has used flattery to get tariffs back down to 15%, details indicate that the promised $350b in investments are long term and underwhelming, with $20b per year in cash spread over 10 years, and the other $150b for shipbuilding including loans.  LNG and other energy purchases appear unchanged at $100b over three and a half years.

Far more important will be Trump's face to face meeting with Chinese President Xi tomorrow before returning to America.  This service has regarded those negotiations as more balanced and now notes the American dollar declining moderately across the board today.

The CrowdWisers parent to this service closed yesterday's Nokia news with the comment that AI enthusiasm is still intact in the market, but it is related to the American political climate.  As implied below, ADP providing weekly employment updates is likely to undercut Republican goals in extending the shutdown.  We'll see if Powell breaks with his precedent by having anything to say about that in a couple of hours, but regardless volatility looks set to increase.

ADP has announced that it will provide weekly estimates on the labor market every Tuesday morning.  It calculates that the private sector added 14,250 jobs over the four weeks up to October 11th.  This is vaguely positive by contrast to the prior report, but it seems unlikely that markets will pay much attention, given that this wasn't anticipated. However, if Congress ignores pressure from the government workers union and others to end the federal shutdown, this may become gradually more important.

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